Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Made Threes (-122)
A lot of signs point to the over on Mikal Bridges’ made threes prop at a line of 1.5.
For starters, Bridges has made at least two triples in all four games in this series, including a 3-for-8 showing from downtown in Game 4.
Going back into the end of the regular season, he’s hit multiple three-pointers in 14 of his last 16 games, with one of the exceptions being the season finale in which he played five minutes. So in the past 15 games in which he’s played normal minutes, he’s made at least two threes in 14 of them.
Across his final 12 regular season games, Bridges averaged 2.5 made threes per contest. For the season, he averaged 1.9 made treys per night and hit 1.8 per game at home.
We project him for 2.0 made trifectas in tonight’s Game 5. At a line of 1.5 and a -122 price, Bridges’ made threes prop looks like a great bet.
Kevin Durant Under 30.5 Points (-118)
Taking the under on a Kevin Durant points prop is never easy — especially when the dude has put up 42 and 39 points in his last two. But our model leans toward the under at this line of 30.5 points.
In those last two games, KD has been on fire. He nailed 61.4% of his shots over Games 3 and 4, and that’s a shooting clip that’ll be tough for even someone as great as Durant to maintain. He shot 53.7% from the field for the season.
While we shouldn’t put too much stock into Durant’s splits from 2020-21 because of his shorter season and the lack of big minutes alongside both James Harden and Kyrie Irving, KD netted just 25.6 points per game at home this season, compared to 28.6 per night on the road. That trend has held true so far in this series as Durant is averaging 29.0 points at home and 40.5 on the road.
Three times this season KD scored at least 32 points in back-to-back games. His outputs in the next games were 26, 28 and 32 and 20.
We project him for 28.4 in this one.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.5 Rebounds (-132)
Michael Porter Jr. has just five, five, and four boards through the last three games of this series, but our algorithm likes the over at this line.
In the regular season, the Portland Trail Blazers really struggled keeping opposing small forwards off the glass, permitting 8.1 rebounds per game to the position, the third-most. Porter took advantage in Game 1 with nine rebounds, but he’s been quiet on the boards since.
Porter pulled down 7.3 rebounds per night in the regular season, and he had a 10-board game against the Blazers back in February.
We project Porter for 7.8 rebounds tonight.
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